The Polls Were Right! || Carl Allen on the 2026 Midterms, from Texas to Maine

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Everyone says the polls blew it. Carl Allen says they didn't, and his research shows candidates averaging 49% or higher in well-polled races have won 98% of the time since 2004. Then we go race by race: Texas, Ohio, Maine, and two red states that could shock everyone on election night.Recorded live on Substack, this conversation with data analyst Carl Allen starts with why polls aren't predictions and ends with a tour of the 2026 Senate map, with real poll averages and prediction market odds pulled up as we talked. Along the way, Carl explains why a one-point lead can be safer than a three-point lead, and why undecided voters in Minnesota aren't the same as undecided voters in Ohio.Calls to…