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AI Boom or Bust? – #122
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Are we in an AI bubble? Steve reviews analysis on CapEx, AI revenues, OAI+ANT burn rates. AI revenue has to reach $trillions per annum within the next few years (an increase of > 10x; compare total global software revenue of $1.5T today), or else the current CapEx spend will turn out to be a huge misallocation. Separately, even if total AI revenue reaches these levels, OAI and ANT could still be overvalued due to revenue/margin compression from competition with other US or Chinese labs. Chapter Markers: (00:00) - Conference Takeaways (03:21) - AI Capability Leap (07:36) - Both Things True (08:46) - CapEx Debt Risks (10:31) - Trillion Revenue Hurdle (18:32) - Spend Plateau Signals (31:45) -…