2485: Economic Forecast and Labor Market Dynamics with Eric Basmajian

About this episode

Economist Eric Basmajian joins Jason to analyze current economic trends, focusing specifically on the housing market, inflation, and recession risks. He explains that although homebuilder profit margins have compressed and residential construction has slowed, broader macroeconomic indicators—such as rising AI capital spending and a cyclical upturn in manufacturing employment—have kept recession probability remarkably low. Basmajian also addresses the unique dynamics of the modern labor market, noting that while layoffs remain historically rare due to labor shortages, finding new employment has become exceptionally challenging, particularly for younger demographics. Finally, they discuss the…