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Excess Returns

Excess Returns

Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps

Sep 3, 2026 · 1h 0m

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About this episode

Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles. Dan Niles on X https://x.com/DanielTNiles Niles Investment Management https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com Topics covered: Why AI can be both a transformational technology and an investment bubble The AI metrics Dan watches: token pricing, token growth,…